ATFX Market Outlook 11th March 2025 

ATFX Market Outlook 11th March 2025 

US Stocks Plunge as Recession Fears Rise and Gold Sees Profit-Taking

Market HighlightU.S. stocks plummeted sharply on Monday as growing concerns over tariff disputes and a potential federal government shutdown intensified worries that the U.S. economy might slide into a recession. All three major indexes experienced significant declines. The S&P 500 marked its largest single-day drop since December 18, with market capitalization shrinking by over $4 trillion since then. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq recorded its biggest daily percentage drop since September 2022.

On Monday, the U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies like the euro and the British pound as investors took profits on recent long positions in those currencies. The euro edged down 0.08% to 1.0823, and the pound fell 0.35% to 1.2874 against the dollar. However, the dollar weakened against the yen, dropping 0.52% to 147.27.

Gold prices declined as profit-taking offset the safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical uncertainties. At the same time, U.S. inflation data has become a key focus for the market. Spot gold fell 0.73% to $2,889.40 per ounce. Oil prices dropped by 1% amid concerns that U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China could slow global economic growth, while OPEC+ increases supply, further dampening energy demand.

Tonight, the U.S. will release the February NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and January JOLTs Job Openings report, both of which will influence market assessments of the labor market's health. Markets will also continue to monitor developments regarding a potential U.S. government shutdown and await tomorrow's key U.S. inflation data.

[Financial data and events of significant concern] 

18:00 US NFIB Business Optimism Index FEB ** 

22:00 US JOLTs Job Openings JAN ** 

Tomorrow

04:30 US API Crude Oil Stock Change *** 

07:50 JP PPI FEB ** 

18:00 OPEC Monthly Report *** 

20:30 US CPI FEB *** 

21:45 BoC Interest Rate Decision ***

22:30 BoC Press Conference *** 

23:15 ECB’s Lane Speaks *** 

EURUSD

·       Resistance: 1.0894 / 1.0932

·       Support: 1.0771 / 1.0733

EUR/USD is near multi-month highs at 1.0850 but shows slowing momentum as traders await key U.S. economic data. The euro has risen over 5% from recent lows, though technical indicators suggest a possible pullback. Cautious sentiment surrounds recession fears and Trump’s tariff threats. Cooling U.S. inflation data could weaken the dollar and support EUR/USD.

GBPUSD

·       Resistance: 1.2930 / 1.2986

·       Support: 1.2817 / 1.2762

GBP/USD fell below 1.2900 as traders await U.S. CPI and UK GDP data amid recession fears and Trump’s trade policies. Resistance is at 1.2950 and 1.3000, while support is at 1.2788. However, market expectations of Fed rate cuts offer short-term support for the Pound.

USDJPY

·       Resistance: 147.48 / 147.89

·       Support: 146.19 / 145.79

The USD/JPY weakened on Monday as the U.S. dollar faced recession concerns and trade tariff uncertainty. The Japanese yen strengthened on safe-haven demand and expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike. This sentiment shift has reinforced a bearish outlook for the pair, with further declines likely.

US Crude Oil Futures (APR)

·       Resistance: 66.32 / 66.68

·       Support: 64.47 / 64.02

Oil prices fell 1.5% on Monday due to renewed U.S. tariffs in Canada, Mexico, and China, raising fears of a global economic slowdown. Brent crude settled at $69.28 and WTI at $66.03. Concerns about recession and geopolitical tensions, including potential sanctions on Iran and Russia, further dampened sentiment. Analysts warn that ongoing uncertainties may limit short-term oil rallies.

Spot Gold

·       Resistance: 2907 / 2919

·       Support: 2870 / 2858

Spot Silver

·       Resistance: 32.30 / 32.53

·       Support: 31.33 / 31.10

Spot gold fell to around $2,880, its largest drop in two weeks, due to profit-taking and a stronger U.S. dollar. It has breached key support levels, with the potential to fall to $2,870, although safe-haven demand may encourage buying. Meanwhile, spot silver is rising as the dollar weakens. Investors are also watching upcoming CPI data that could affect Fed policy.

Dow Futures

·       Resistance: 42283 / 42580

·       Support: 41357 / 41063

The Dow Futures fell 850 points on Monday, dropping below 42,000 amid recession fears and uncertainty over the Trump administration’s tariff policies. Investors are watching upcoming CPI and PPI inflation data for signs of cooling. Tech and banking stocks led the decline, while Amgen posted gains. This marks the first time since 2023 that the index dropped below its long-term Exponential Moving Average, indicating a possible shift in market momentum.

NAS100

·       Resistance: 19887 / 20141

·       Support: 19101 / 18851

The Nasdaq Composite plunged by 4% on Monday, marking a significant decline as investor sentiment soured after President Trump did not rule out the possibility of a recession. Major tech stocks such as Tesla, Apple, and Microsoft fell by over 2.4%, reflecting fears of economic uncertainty and policy-driven market volatility. If the bearish sentiment persists, the Nasdaq may test lower support. 

BTC

·       Resistance: 80756 / 82718

·       Support: 74263 / 71726

Bitcoin has dropped below $80,000 amid rising U.S. recession fears and weak risk sentiment. Despite President Trump announcing a national Bitcoin reserve, markets fell due to no new government purchases. Other cryptocurrencies like Ether and XRP also declined. Strategy's $21 billion Bitcoin buy plan negatively impacted its stock price. Investors are now looking ahead to upcoming U.S. inflation data for insights.

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