ATFX Market Outlook 30th April 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 30th April 2025

Trump Tweaks Auto Tariffs Ahead of Key US GDP & PCE Showdown Tonight

Market HighlightOn Tuesday, President Trump signed an executive order combining tariff credits and duty exemptions for specific auto parts to mitigate the impact of auto tariffs. U.S. stocks rose sharply, with the Dow Jones up 0.75%, the S&P 500 gaining 0.58%, and the Nasdaq climbing 0.55%. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell for the sixth straight session, reaching a three-week low, while the U.S. dollar index rebounded above 99 due to expectations of stabilized domestic industries.

Gold prices fell nearly 1% as easing U.S.-China trade tensions reduced safe-haven demand, closing at $3,316.11 per ounce. Crude oil prices dropped around 2% to a two-week low amid concerns that OPEC+ might increase output and Trump's tariffs could impact global growth and oil demand.

Key Outlook

Today marks the last trading day of April, with significant data releases on the horizon. In Europe, attention is on the Eurozone and German Q1 GDP. Eurozone GDP is anticipated to slow to 1.0% YoY (previous: 1.2%), raising concerns about economic momentum. In the U.S., Q1 GDP is expected to decelerate sharply to 0.4% (previous: 2.4%) amid ongoing trade war uncertainty. Core PCE inflation is projected at 2.6% YoY (previous: 2.8%), signaling potential tariff-driven price pressures. US ADP employment data is forecast to decrease to 123K (previous: 155K), reflecting continued strain on the U.S. labor market. Last night’s JOLTs report indicated job openings at a six-month low.

Key Data and Events Today:

16:00 EU GERMANY GDP Flash Q1 ** 

17:00 EU GDP Flash Q1 ** 

20:15 US ADP Employment Change APR ***

20:30 US GDP & Core PCE Price Index Adv Q1 ** 

22:00 US Core PCE Price Index MAR *** 

22:30 EIA Crude Stock Change **

Tomorrow: 

Germany, France, Italy, China and Hong Kong Holidays

08:30 JP Manufacturing PMI Final APR ** 

11:00 BOJ Interest Rate Decision *** 

14:30 Bank of Japan Governor Press Conference *** 

16:30 GB Manufacturing PMI Final APR ** 

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

22:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI APR *** 

22:00 US Core PCE Price Index MAR *** 

22:30 EIA Crude Stock Change ** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1455 / 1.1500

· Support: 1.1345 / 1.1309

EUR/USD edged higher in early Asia after US job openings fell to 7.19M, the lowest since September 2024, and consumer confidence dropped to a 4-year low. These weak figures boosted Fed rate cut bets, pressuring the Dollar. Attention now turns to German retail sales, CPI, GDP, US PCE inflation data, and ADP employment change, due later today.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3445 / 1.3468

· Support: 1.3372 / 1.3350

GBP/USD is consolidating above 1.3390 with an overall bullish bias. Key support lies at 1.3340; holding above this level could open a path toward 1.3450. On the fundamental side, weak US JOLTs and consumer confidence data have pressured the dollar. If today’s ADP employment change, PCE inflation data, and GDP figures disappoint, rate-cut expectations may rise, which would boost the GBP. Although BoE rate cuts are priced in, policymaker Greene noted that Trump’s tariffs may dampen UK inflation, reducing the need for aggressive easing and supporting Sterling in the short term.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 143.05 / 143.55

· Support: 141.52/ 140.90

USD/JPY hovers near 142 as markets await U.S. ADP employment change, GDP, and Core PCE data. Softer results could boost the Fed rate cut bets and weigh the dollar. The BoJ decision on Thursday and hotter Tokyo CPI supported the JPY. Technically, 142 is a key support level; a break may target 141.20, with resistance at 142.80 and 144.00.

US Crude Oil Futures (JUNE)

· Resistance: 61.12/62.54

· Support: 58.82/57.68

WTI crude hovers near $60, facing a downside risk toward the $57 support level. OPEC+ is expected to increase output again next week, raising supply concerns. Despite Trump’s signal to ease auto tariffs, US-China tensions persist. A surprise three-day ceasefire by Russia temporarily alleviates geopolitical risks. If the upcoming US GDP and jobs data disappoint, it could reinforce demand weakness and further pressure oil.

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3383/3428

· Support: 3275/3240

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 33.67/34.60

· Support: 32.19/31.45

Gold trades near $3,315 amid easing US-China tensions and a stronger dollar. Focus shifts to US ADP, PCE, and GDP data later today. Technically, XAU/USD remains range-bound; a break above $3,323 may open the path to $3,345, while a drop below $3,293 could trigger further downside. Softer data may support gold through renewed Fed rate cut bets.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 41185/41905

· Support: 39721/38988

The Dow rose 0.80% to around 40,500 on Tuesday as weak labor and sentiment data boosted expectations of a Fed rate cut. The JOLT Index fell to 7.19 million in March, and the Consumer Confidence Index decreased to 86.0 in April, reaching multi-year lows. The market focus now shifts to the first quarter GDP (expected: 0.4%) and core PCE (expected: 2.6%) to be released today. Despite ongoing US-China trade uncertainty, falling yields supported the stock market. From a technical perspective, the Dow is above its 20-day moving average, with resistance around 41,000.

NAS100

· Resistance: 19752/20310

· Support: 18871/18426

Concerns about auto tariffs eased, boosting market sentiment, and tech stocks saw broad gains overnight. Tesla rose by over 2%, while Netflix increased by over 1%. The Nasdaq index rebounded above 19,500, reaching its highest since early April. If upcoming U.S. GDP, PCE, and ADP employment data fall short of expectations, bulls may gain momentum and push the Nasdaq toward the 20,000 mark.

BTC

· Resistance: 95616/ 97278

· Support: 91895 / 90204

BTC is above $94K ahead of today's key US data release. Technically, a break above $95K could target $97K, while a failure may lead to a pullback to $90K. Momentum is fading but remains bullish.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

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